To Elizabeth Smoots -- with all due respect Ms. Smoots-- "Milton Friedman" had no "skin in the game" -full stop.
What I was addressing: - from a real world- was a starting point.
Again, with all due respect -- until you have have put you personal "butt" on the line for your Country -- especially at this point in time - in the history of this Country -- quoted "philosophy" from someone that didn't do a damned thing for this Country - except "wax poetic -- "...is a day late and a dollar short...".
Talk is cheap and expendable.
In my humble opinion - -we've had enough of that for a lifetime.
"A society that puts equality before freedom will get neither. A society that puts freedom before equality will get a high degree of both." --Milton Friedman
The unfortunate reality of politics is that policies must be viewed through the lens of hindsight. Laws are written with a certain temporal lag, meaning their effects—whether positive or negative—are not immediately apparent. They are designed to minimize "negative externalities" while allowing time for the economy and population to adjust, challenge, and adapt to the inevitable oscillations of political power. Political cycles are characterized by the rise of one party, which often defines itself by opposition to the other. This back-and-forth means that policies and their consequences can’t be fully understood in real-time—they only come into focus long after the fact.
Take oil production, for instance. Recent headlines have touted the Biden administration's issuance of 50% more oil and gas drilling permits on federal land compared to the Trump administration. On the surface, this sounds like a clear case of policy change, with the current administration seemingly embracing fossil fuel development more aggressively than its predecessor. And, yes, the data is technically accurate. But like most things in politics, the situation is far more complicated once you dig beneath the surface.
What those headlines fail to capture is the reality of how these permits are being processed. A closer look at the 2023 data reveals that a substantial portion of the permits granted under Biden were actually for lands that were leased during the Trump administration. The Biden administration, in stark contrast, has held the line on new lease sales, issuing the bare minimum required by law. The upshot? Claims of mass permit approvals under Biden are better understood as a time lag—an artifact of the bottleneck in the permitting process. The glut of permits that had been awaiting approval under the previous administration has now been worked through by the Department of Interior.
This isn't just a unique feature of oil and gas permitting. It’s a systemic issue with federal policies that is shared across various domains—tax policy, infrastructure development, and more. The real picture often lies hidden in the bureaucratic backlogs, where the slow churn of regulatory approval gives rise to the kind of temporal disconnect that makes policy debates so challenging to follow in real-time.
In the ether of political time, the past becomes prologue, and the true impacts of policy decisions are only fully realized after the fact. The "new" policy often reflects decisions made long before the headlines were written.
Good clarification. Instead of "drill baby drill" a more appropriate slogan to differentiate Trump’s upcoming term from Biden’s would be "lease baby lease." Not as catchy I realize.
Great write-up, thanks! If Trump declares an energy emergency, lots of changes can happen. Ah, but can this increased production support such a declaration? I hope we'll at least get the chance to watch it play out.
I’m getting more informed regularly thanks to the many wonderful writers on Substack. I wonder where production would be if the SPR hadn’t been drained down. I can only imagine how much more efficient the industry would be right now if they weren’t always having to work with one arm tied behind their backs. Thank you for another great article! All these lame duck jabs are actually an attack on the country as a whole imo……
To Elizabeth Smoots -- with all due respect Ms. Smoots-- "Milton Friedman" had no "skin in the game" -full stop.
What I was addressing: - from a real world- was a starting point.
Again, with all due respect -- until you have have put you personal "butt" on the line for your Country -- especially at this point in time - in the history of this Country -- quoted "philosophy" from someone that didn't do a damned thing for this Country - except "wax poetic -- "...is a day late and a dollar short...".
Talk is cheap and expendable.
In my humble opinion - -we've had enough of that for a lifetime.
"Prior to the year 2000, the Section 12(a) provision was only invoked three or four times in nearly five centuries."
Decades, I believe, (sorry to be such a killjoy.)
You have done a very nice analysis of the situation. Keep up the good work.
Terrible error. Thanks!
There is an "Inconvenient Truth" about this last National Election that needs to be clearly stated:
--- Trump won an Electoral College race, and the popular election by about 1 - 1.5 percent -- of the votes that were placed.
There are three glaring truth that have to be stated.
1.) there are more Registered Democratic voter then Registered Republicans in the United States.
2.) the population race was lost -- because lots of Democrats sat on their asses in the election.
3.) in any way possible -- the Electoral College has to be "round-filed" - in order to get any equality back.
"A society that puts equality before freedom will get neither. A society that puts freedom before equality will get a high degree of both." --Milton Friedman
The unfortunate reality of politics is that policies must be viewed through the lens of hindsight. Laws are written with a certain temporal lag, meaning their effects—whether positive or negative—are not immediately apparent. They are designed to minimize "negative externalities" while allowing time for the economy and population to adjust, challenge, and adapt to the inevitable oscillations of political power. Political cycles are characterized by the rise of one party, which often defines itself by opposition to the other. This back-and-forth means that policies and their consequences can’t be fully understood in real-time—they only come into focus long after the fact.
Take oil production, for instance. Recent headlines have touted the Biden administration's issuance of 50% more oil and gas drilling permits on federal land compared to the Trump administration. On the surface, this sounds like a clear case of policy change, with the current administration seemingly embracing fossil fuel development more aggressively than its predecessor. And, yes, the data is technically accurate. But like most things in politics, the situation is far more complicated once you dig beneath the surface.
What those headlines fail to capture is the reality of how these permits are being processed. A closer look at the 2023 data reveals that a substantial portion of the permits granted under Biden were actually for lands that were leased during the Trump administration. The Biden administration, in stark contrast, has held the line on new lease sales, issuing the bare minimum required by law. The upshot? Claims of mass permit approvals under Biden are better understood as a time lag—an artifact of the bottleneck in the permitting process. The glut of permits that had been awaiting approval under the previous administration has now been worked through by the Department of Interior.
This isn't just a unique feature of oil and gas permitting. It’s a systemic issue with federal policies that is shared across various domains—tax policy, infrastructure development, and more. The real picture often lies hidden in the bureaucratic backlogs, where the slow churn of regulatory approval gives rise to the kind of temporal disconnect that makes policy debates so challenging to follow in real-time.
In the ether of political time, the past becomes prologue, and the true impacts of policy decisions are only fully realized after the fact. The "new" policy often reflects decisions made long before the headlines were written.
Good color. Thx!
Good clarification. Instead of "drill baby drill" a more appropriate slogan to differentiate Trump’s upcoming term from Biden’s would be "lease baby lease." Not as catchy I realize.
Great article, thanks and here's to a better 4 years ahead of us.
Thanks. Amen.
Brilliant!
Water heater tanks can be used as a source of emergency water.
Get the sediment out…
Great write-up, thanks! If Trump declares an energy emergency, lots of changes can happen. Ah, but can this increased production support such a declaration? I hope we'll at least get the chance to watch it play out.
We’ll find out in 24 mos.
I’m getting more informed regularly thanks to the many wonderful writers on Substack. I wonder where production would be if the SPR hadn’t been drained down. I can only imagine how much more efficient the industry would be right now if they weren’t always having to work with one arm tied behind their backs. Thank you for another great article! All these lame duck jabs are actually an attack on the country as a whole imo……
Thanks, Dave
Great analysis. Thanks!
No, thank YOU!