The EU’s refusal to completely admit the error of their ways to their own people and to pledge to fix this generational screw-up really makes one hope for an unexpected prolonged cold snap just to get their attention. Ursula von der Leyen’s semi- mea culpa was insufficient. What a total bunch of fools.
1) With Bessent issuing a 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian crude at sea...
2) With Europe needing every molecule of crude and LNG it can get (despite Russia having little actual spare capacity, according to some theories...), possibly badly enough to make some concessions (including reversing the decisions to stop purchases this year/next) and none of his product having to go through the Strait of Hormuz
3) With prices rising helping his revenue
4) With the U.S. burning through stockpiles of missile defense systems
At the end of this essay, the words "aren't laffan now" brought to mind the old Journey song, "Who's Crying Now." Most of the lyrics in the first verse work as well:
It's been a mystery,
But still they try to see,
Why something good can hurt so bad,
Caught on a one-way street,
The taste of bittersweet ...
It's truly shocking that these modern countries have allowed themselves to get caught in this situation. The comments about nuclear and renewables being the answer to their troubles suggest continued aversion to meaningful short-term solutions. Great work!
It is remarkable to me that the European electorate across all nations continues to re-elect these complete morons. their lives have been consistently debased by policy and no changes ever seem to come. it is very difficult to have any sympathy for anyone who lives in Europe and continues to vote for this insanity.
Well done, gentlemen! Forgive me this basic question, but is the EU's dwindling natural gas production due to limited quantities available, or limited exploration?
More by choice. It doesn't have the geology the U.S. does. But it has enough to easily produce half its consumption. It likely needs a higher breakeven price/mmBTU's (or Euros/MWH as they prefer) than U.S. shale. But it has been a choice.
Thank you for the compliment. Doom was our initial inspiration 3 years ago. And we love Brawlster's work (and hope the German clown government doesn't jail him or Eugyppius for "mean words" they don't like.)
Lost by the side that runs out of water and arrows first ... and energy and food and testicular fortitude first as well.
Europe short on energy, arrows and testicular fortitude, long on green virtue. OK for making cheese, wine and art. For economic security and sovereignty? Not so much.
High or low hydrocarbon prices won't change the physics or intermittency of spinning green crucifixes or sun catchers, with or without utility scale battery storage as they relate to the 24/7/365/8,760 energy demands of advanced industrial societies.
So we'll let the WSJ tell the world what exactly is going to change that whole equation.
Congrats on the 100th post. I wish I could “Laff” at the European Energy Policies. They are not going to be very “funny” when they end up in a food crisis next because of the spike in Natural gas prices. Fragility is about to hit a whole new meaning if this lasts a lot longer.
Countries led by politicians making decisions, based on their own egos, to wave the self righteous climate change victory flag. When all they've really done is outsourced the problem to countries that don't give a s about "saving the planet". I find it disgusting really. No different than US cities/states out sourcing their garbage to poor countries or moving their manufacturing over to China all the while claiming how important the climate is. Yeah, right
The politicians are energy blind like the populace who votes for them.
The outsourced game of CO2 whackamole where the EU and US simply pushed their emissions overseas wasn't so much done out of climate "virtue" as much as trade policy.
China capitalized on it and turned into a Green Cold War eventually, once they cornered first the base material and processing markets for wind and solar.
Spinning green crucifixes and sun catchers were never going to power advanced industrial economies. We'll learn the hard way.
Why Trump hasn’t trolled those smug fools in the photo is a mystery. Talk about low hanging fruit.
Good point. They seem exactly like the kind of folks he'd enjoy reminding how stupid they look now.
;)
The EU’s refusal to completely admit the error of their ways to their own people and to pledge to fix this generational screw-up really makes one hope for an unexpected prolonged cold snap just to get their attention. Ursula von der Leyen’s semi- mea culpa was insufficient. What a total bunch of fools.
Well it better hurry. If it doesn't get here in the next 6 or so weeks they'll succeed in avoiding a crisis only by accident with the weather again.
So, who's laffin now?
Hard to say.
Maybe Putin.
1) With Bessent issuing a 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian crude at sea...
2) With Europe needing every molecule of crude and LNG it can get (despite Russia having little actual spare capacity, according to some theories...), possibly badly enough to make some concessions (including reversing the decisions to stop purchases this year/next) and none of his product having to go through the Strait of Hormuz
3) With prices rising helping his revenue
4) With the U.S. burning through stockpiles of missile defense systems
We'll see.....
At the end of this essay, the words "aren't laffan now" brought to mind the old Journey song, "Who's Crying Now." Most of the lyrics in the first verse work as well:
It's been a mystery,
But still they try to see,
Why something good can hurt so bad,
Caught on a one-way street,
The taste of bittersweet ...
It's truly shocking that these modern countries have allowed themselves to get caught in this situation. The comments about nuclear and renewables being the answer to their troubles suggest continued aversion to meaningful short-term solutions. Great work!
More like continued aversion to anything in which hydrogen and carbon might be connected (literally and figuratively...)
"Why something good can hurt so bad,"
Oh, yes they do work well!
(But you are aging us, Trevor! ;)
Wow , great work, always inspiring to hear some common sense. The stuff you won’t find in the mainstream media.
Thanks for the comment.
The funniest part of it is that all of this information is publicly available for the most part.
Thank you for a wonderful headline! You guys should send this to the NY Post!
No thank you!
We don't send our stuff to major media outlets. If someone else wants to do that for us, we certainly won't be upset! ;)
It is remarkable to me that the European electorate across all nations continues to re-elect these complete morons. their lives have been consistently debased by policy and no changes ever seem to come. it is very difficult to have any sympathy for anyone who lives in Europe and continues to vote for this insanity.
Agree.
Change seems unavoidable over the next 24 mos.
Well done, gentlemen! Forgive me this basic question, but is the EU's dwindling natural gas production due to limited quantities available, or limited exploration?
More by choice. It doesn't have the geology the U.S. does. But it has enough to easily produce half its consumption. It likely needs a higher breakeven price/mmBTU's (or Euros/MWH as they prefer) than U.S. shale. But it has been a choice.
thank you. I was wondering about the geology, given their North Sea oil deposits
Remember though. Norway and the UK are not part of the EU.
But watch both closely wrt the “EU Grids Package.” (post with relation to all this coming soon…).
Thanks. I knew Britain wasn't, but didn't know Norway was not in the EU.
Another exceptional article. Keep up the good work!
Thanks for the compliment. We live in very interesting times. It makes the work thoroughly enjoyable and always a learning experience for us.
congrats on 100! I will shout you out Friday in All Predictions Wrong.
Thank you so much.
It's been a great ride. And the community here is a big part of it.
Great analysis and build on Doomie and Brawler's substacks too. This is the way.
Thank you for the compliment. Doom was our initial inspiration 3 years ago. And we love Brawlster's work (and hope the German clown government doesn't jail him or Eugyppius for "mean words" they don't like.)
that has been one of my major concerns
Ultimately, wars are lost by the side that runs out of water and arrows first. Europe is in that camp.
Lost by the side that runs out of water and arrows first ... and energy and food and testicular fortitude first as well.
Europe short on energy, arrows and testicular fortitude, long on green virtue. OK for making cheese, wine and art. For economic security and sovereignty? Not so much.
I might argue that you are the first to put Europe and testicular fortitude in the same sentence!
Exactly!
And then there's this (highly predictable) article headline in my morning scan of the WSJ:
"Europe’s New Energy Crisis Will Mean a Bull Market in Renewables"
It never stops. High fossil fuel prices only seem to embolden the faithful, rather than considering their views may be counterproductive.
High or low hydrocarbon prices won't change the physics or intermittency of spinning green crucifixes or sun catchers, with or without utility scale battery storage as they relate to the 24/7/365/8,760 energy demands of advanced industrial societies.
So we'll let the WSJ tell the world what exactly is going to change that whole equation.
That's the problem. WSJ just skates by on claims they never have to defend or explain. Easy peasy.
Yes indeed
Congrats on the 100th post. I wish I could “Laff” at the European Energy Policies. They are not going to be very “funny” when they end up in a food crisis next because of the spike in Natural gas prices. Fragility is about to hit a whole new meaning if this lasts a lot longer.
Thanks, Dave! Appreciate your support for this ride!
Yep, Irina just posted a piece on fertilizer this a.m. https://irinaslav.substack.com/p/fun-with-food
Countries led by politicians making decisions, based on their own egos, to wave the self righteous climate change victory flag. When all they've really done is outsourced the problem to countries that don't give a s about "saving the planet". I find it disgusting really. No different than US cities/states out sourcing their garbage to poor countries or moving their manufacturing over to China all the while claiming how important the climate is. Yeah, right
The politicians are energy blind like the populace who votes for them.
The outsourced game of CO2 whackamole where the EU and US simply pushed their emissions overseas wasn't so much done out of climate "virtue" as much as trade policy.
China capitalized on it and turned into a Green Cold War eventually, once they cornered first the base material and processing markets for wind and solar.
Spinning green crucifixes and sun catchers were never going to power advanced industrial economies. We'll learn the hard way.
"green crucifixes and sun catchers" . Yes, exactly right
He who laughs last, laughs well.
As our friends in Saskatchewan say, "you betcha!"
;)