Cool Change
While you were distracted over gas furnaces, stoves, and heat pumps, the UN's Montreal Protocol snuck up on your air conditioner, too.
“No man's life, liberty, or property are safe while the legislature is in session.” - Gideon J. Tucker
One consequence of the obsession with “solving” the “existential planetary crisis” of “climate change” is that products whose production and/or use emits copious amounts of “greenhouse gases” (GHGs) like carbon dioxide (CO2) have to change. Your enjoyment of life, comfort and standard of living are irrelevant (or exactly the point, depending on one’s point of view).
Regularly haul large loads and heavy trailers long distances? Need plenty of power in a full-size pickup or SUV capable of dependably rendering that kind of duty for 200,000 miles? Sorry, Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards killed V8 engines. Wonder why new dishwashers take 2-3 times as long to dry dishes as the one you had 20 years ago? Heat pump can’t keep your elderly parent’s new home above 68 degrees on the coldest days of winter, when the old gas-fired furnace in their 1970’s poorly insulated ranch had no problem? Thank energy “efficiency” standards.
(Stanley Jevons has, of course, been wetting himself watching all this. And that was before Artificial Intelligence.)
These are just the sacrifices you are forced to make for the greater good. If you feel like the Western world’s attempts to save the planet, humanity and “our children’s future” ruin everything today, suck it up, Buttercup. This is your duty as a “global citizen.” To suggest otherwise is to invite opprobrium, have your commute to work blocked, and cause priceless Van Gogh’s to come within a thin sheet of glass from destruction.
While many were distracted over the last few years by regressive “progressive environmentalists” and federal agencies threatening natural gas furnaces because of “climate change,” the other major comfort system in your home has been quietly poised for a change.
It was only a matter of time before something besides electricity consumption would force modern air conditioners down the same path as vehicle engines and dishwashers that dried dishes in 45 minutes in the name of “climate change.” Meaning, marginally better for the planet, with higher cost and lower performance. Sound familiar?
In America, those chickens come home to roost on January 1, 2025. What are the changes coming to U.S. residential air conditioners, and what do they mean for homeowners? Is there a cheat code for those who want to avoid being guinea pigs with new air conditioning system designs and refrigerants? Let’s have a look at the cool change coming.
We begin with a Readers’ Digest version of the global agreement that phased out a series of air conditioning refrigerants over the last thirty plus years. The United Nations’ (UN) 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol) is the international treaty to protect earth’s ozone layer by phasing out the production of “ozone depleting substances” (ODS). By many accounts it succeeded. But in the early part of this century, it morphed into another United Nations (UN) “climate change” mission creep involving “greenhouse gases” (GHGs).
The Montreal Protocol has been revised nine times over nearly forty years. The initial focus was on chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which were widely used for decades as refrigerants in air conditioning systems. CFC’s contain chlorine, and their atmospheric degradation frees up chlorine molecules that damage the stratospheric ozone layer. By the late 1990’s, CFC production and consumption was banned in the developed countries.
Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) emerged as replacements to CFCs for refrigeration, air conditioning (AC), aerosol products, foam production, and other purposes. Because they tend to degrade in lower layers of the atmosphere, they pose a much lower risk of ozone depletion than CFCs. But around 2005, they became targets of the UN’s obsession with greenhouse gases and “climate change”.
HCFC refrigerants were deemed to be “high global warming potential” gases. Their phase out began in the early 2000s and was completed in developed countries in 2020.
“Global warming potential” (GWP) is the term used to describe how much energy the emission of one ton of a gas will absorb over a given period of time, relative to the emission of one ton of carbon dioxide (CO2). We won’t bore you with details on how gases absorb energy in certain wavelengths, their saturation points, or how long they remain in the atmosphere. All of these are material to the question of exactly how harmful these gases are in relation to “climate change.” The fact that they absorb some infrared radiation (heat) is not some form of “hoax.”
If you live in America or Europe, since around 2010 your residential AC system has been using refrigerants that emerged to replace CFCs and HCFCs. Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants contain no chlorine molecules like their predecessors, but they are also deemed “high GWP” gases.
The ninth and most recent revision to the Montreal Protocol occurred in 2016 in Kigali, Rwanda. Known as the Kigali Amendment (Kigali), it initiated phasing out the current HFC refrigerants around 2020.
Congress codified U.S. obligations under the Montreal Protocol through the Clean Air Act (CAA), regulating ozone depleting substances by the addition of Title VI in the 1990 CAA amendments. Thirty years later, U.S. obligations under Kigali were codified in the American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act, which was passed by Congress in the fall of 2020. When he signed it on December 27, 2020, the AIM Act would be one of the last pieces of legislation enacted by Donald Trump during his presidency. (It is possible he might have been a bit distracted by other circumstances at the time.)
The AIM Act is like other 21st century U.S. legislation carrying Orwellian titles bearing no relation to their actual intentions (with consequences usually the inverse of whatever the name implies; think “Affordable Care” Act, or “Inflation Reduction” Act). In this case, it spins a ban on HFC refrigerants because of their “GWP” as an “innovation”, “manufacturing”, and “jobs” bill.
Kigali’s official force as U.S. law began in fall 2022, when President Biden signed the ratification bill weeks before the November 2022 mid-term election. One year later, in October 2023, EPA issued a final rule under the AIM Act that set dates to restrict the use of HFCs in new aerosol, foam, and refrigeration, AC, and heat pump (RACHP) products and equipment. For residential and light commercial air conditioning and heat pumps, the final rule set a compliance date of January 1, 2025, and a limit of 700 for the GWP of refrigerants used in AC systems.
GWP uses CO2 as the reference standard, meaning CO2 has a GWP of 1. The image below shows the range of GWP for some common refrigerants used across the western world over the last 50 plus years (including the current R-410a refrigerant common to most single-family home systems) compared to one of the two, lower GWP “post Kigali” refrigerants (R-32), converting all gases to a common measure known as CO2 equivalent (CO2e).
The next image compares the Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) and GWP of some of these same AC refrigerants phased out by the Montreal Protocol and later Kigali. One of the post-Kigali replacements, R-32, has a GWP of ~675 (~65% reduction vs. R-410a), while the other R-454b (not shown below), has a GWP of ~467 (>76% reduction). R-32 and R-454b have no ozone depletion potential and both fall below EPA’s October 2023 rule limit (700). (Note: values below from UN IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report have been revised slightly since but are suitable for comparative purposes.)
HFCs measure in the parts per trillion in earth’s atmosphere, where CO2 measures in parts per million (currently ~ 420 parts ppm). While they are more powerful at trapping heat, concentrations of HCFCs and HFCs are about 1,000,000 times less than CO2 in earth’s atmosphere.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides a convenient graphic for visualizing the GWP contribution of all major U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. HCFCs and HFCs are in the group of “high-GWP gases.”
But as the graph below shows, according to EPA’s greenhouse gas accounting, “high-GWP gases” account for a mere 3.1% of the nearly 6.4 million metric tons (MMT) of annual U.S. CO2e emissions.
The “high-GWP gases” include another group of compounds added to EPA’s “bad” list over the last few years: perfluorocarbons (PFCs). If you’re clutching your pearls over AC’s contribution to “climate change” and “forever chemicals”, we have bad news: At least sixteen common AC refrigerants contain some form of the per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) known as “forever chemicals”.
TFA, listed as a PFAS compound, is an atmospheric degradation product of one such refrigerant, known as R-1234yf. 31% of the new R-454b refrigerant blend most U.S. residential AC system manufacturers are adopting effective January 1, 2025 is comprised of R-1234yf (already the main refrigerant in passenger and commercial vehicle AC systems sold in the U.S. for many years).
Fugitive PFC emissions come from a variety of sources, not the least of which are the major chemical plants that produce the compounds. How much of the 3.1% of U.S. total greenhouse gas emissions associated with “high-GWP” gases are from PFC and HFC production facilities compared to leaking AC systems in vehicles or other sources no one really knows.
In the U.S., new AIM Act-compliant AC systems with the new R-454b refrigerants (some using the R-32 blend) begin shipping in the next five months. Costs across similar capacity units (measured by compressor tonnage and SEER rating) are expected to increase by 15-25%, or more.
Experienced technicians are expressing concerns about the new systems. These include first-year model reliability, the new refrigerants’ cooling performance on the hottest days, and differences in installation procedures.
The major residential AC manufacturers knew the changes were coming after the AIM Act and Biden’s signature on the Kigali ratifying bill officially enacted it in the U.S. But EPA’s final rule in October 2023 set a compliance date of January 1, 2025, forcing them to speed up completing design, testing, and tooling plants to produce the new units.
According to a few experienced technicians we spoke with, manufacturer “training” has been unable to answer many questions from the field. Many conclude that the new systems have been rushed to meet the deadline, and the industry will just figure it out as it goes.
In 2022, the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) updated its safety standards to create a new safety category of flammability to accommodate the coming new refrigerant blends. The R-454b blend most U.S. manufacturers will use contains enough methane that ASHRAE rated it one flammability level higher (A2L) than the current residential standard refrigerant R-410a (labeled A1, least flammable; note: A2L refrigerants are only slightly more flammable, but not explosive!).
Refrigerant leak detection sensors are required with the new systems due to the increased flammability rating. If the sensors detect a refrigerant leak (even in the winter, when the AC system isn’t running!) the new systems are programmed to shut down furnaces. That may be an inconvenience in January if you live in Lafayette, Louisiana. But in a January blizzard in Fargo, North Dakota, it is a more serious matter. (We have read some are programmed to run the blower to clear any volatile gases until the sensors no longer alarm, then cycle after ~30 minutes if the sensors no longer detect a refrigerant leak, allowing the systems reset, and the furnace to continue to restart.)
Questions are common among technicians on the subreddit r/HVAC. Because of the flammability concern, can torches be used to braze fittings when connecting refrigerant line sets to the new systems? Some also report manufacturers recommending technicians use compression fittings, which are more prone to failure.
If you don’t want to pay a higher price and be a guinea pig for the first-year models of the new air conditioners arriving on January 1, you have a cheat code, but it won’t last long: current systems using R-410a refrigerant are still being produced by the major manufacturers for a few more months.
Technically, components manufactured or imported prior to January 1, 2025 can be installed up to January 1, 2026. But practically speaking, most manufacturers are winding down production of the existing units in favor of the new designs to be ready to ship R-454b (or R-32) compliant systems on January 1 (or sooner).
Many markets will find supply of the existing units for two to three more months. After that, it is anybody’s guess, as the remaining production runs and inventories of the current R-410a systems are likely to vary by manufacturer.
R-410a refrigerant is an HFC with a planned production phase out, but like the prior CFC and HCFC transitions driven by the Montreal Protocol, it will still be produced for 10 years, and supplies in inventory when production ceases will continue to be legal for sale. This means R-410a should be available beyond the useful life of units installed today (usually ~12-15 years). You will pay more for R-410a refrigerant in ten or so years. But we would expect the increment to pale in comparison to the 15-25% or more additional cost of entire new systems using R-454b or R-32 today.
If you have a furnace with a reasonable remaining useful life, you can replace your existing AC system with no need for modification – for now. If you wait until after January 1 then need to replace your existing AC system’s evaporator coil, and all you can find are new R-454b/R-32 based systems, you can continue to use your furnace, but you will need to have the aforementioned methane sensors installed. (Heat pumps may be different. Seek professional help.)
Having made great progress addressing their worst environmental problems from a century of industrialization, we close by noting it is a luxury of the rich, advanced nations to chase trace contaminants (in soil, groundwater, surface water and drinking water), or trace gases in the atmosphere (like HFCs), down to the level of parts per trillion. Just like crusades to stop eating meat, it is fair to question whether this is picking the fly shit out of the pepper, the cost/benefit tradeoffs demanded are justified, and the attempt to reduce risks to this level is really more about prohibiting certain products and activities than “saving the planet.”
At the end of the day, human use of essential materials and consumption of energy are not only matters of comfort, quality of life and standard of living. Something in the range of two million to five million people die annually due to heat and cold. Studies consistently show that cold causes three to ten times the number of deaths as heat. For tens of millions, especially the elderly, basic heating and cooling are necessary tools of survival.
Meanwhile, if you need to replace an air conditioner next year, you are going to drop some cool change on the newly mandated units. It’s just another price you have to pay for “saving the planet.”
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Thanks for explaining and exposing all in one. Too little too late on this bs but maybe it’s possible to get ahead of the next waste of resources. How does someone begin searching for the next attempt to find fly shit in the pepper. Very appropriate comparison! Excellent work as always!
No problem - we'll just have to sit in front of a fan and a block of ice. Assuming we still have electricity...