The Blame in Spain Falls Mainly on the Aim

The warning from the Iberian Peninsula blackout, and how Substack energy content creators filled the vacuum created by a captured legacy media.

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." – Upton Sinclair

The picture below is a satellite image of the Korean peninsula at night. The southern portion of the peninsula is a visual testimony to energy abundance, freedom, and prosperity. The northern portion is dark for precisely the opposite reasons.

A canon of politics in advanced, democratically governed nations is that if your objective is stability, popularity, and reelection, leaving your citizens in the dark is not a recipe for electoral success. The last thing you would want is for your nation to look like North Korea on a satellite image at night.

And yet, thirteen days ago, that is exactly what happened in Spain and Portugal, less than two weeks after the former reportedly generated 100% of its electricity demand with the combination of wind, solar and hydropower energy resources. That fact was little consolation to 50 million or more people sitting in the dark, unable to cook food, or move about normally on April 28th.

What do we know about the Iberian Peninsula grid failure nearly two weeks after the event? How did Substack’s content creators in the energy space stack up (pun intended) against the legacy media covering it? And what are the main takeaways?

We begin with what is known about the event. It will be months before the results of investigations by the governments of Spain and Portugal, their grid operators, and European Union leadership are released to the public.

The nation’s grid operator Red Electrica de Espana (Red Electrica) held a press conference the afternoon after the blackout to share initial information while noting it was preliminary and not a root cause analysis. At approximately 12:33 p.m. local time on April 28th, the Spanish grid suffered a disturbance event “akin to” a loss of generation, originating in the southwest region, noting that it was “very likely” the affected generation was solar, but could not be certain.

The grid self-stabilized, recovering in a matter of milliseconds, but under two seconds later another disturbance – again “akin to” another loss of generation – hit the grid. Within four seconds after that second disturbance, the grid’s instability reached a level that triggered a disconnect with the interconnection with France (a 2.5-Gigawatt capacity connection). Immediately after that occurred, a massive and inexplicable loss of renewable generation hit the grid. The cascading loss of generation further destabilized the grid, triggering other generating units to disconnect to avoid damaging their equipment. This disconnected every remaining generation asset, including natural gas, hydroelectric, and nuclear generators as a safety precaution to protect generation assets and the grid itself. At one point, there was actually 0 Megawatts of electricity generation on the Spanish grid.

The European electric grid operates on a frequency of 50 Hz (cycles per second; the U.S. grid operates at 60 Hz). What creates and maintains that frequency? Large spinning turbines from coal-fired, natural gas-fired, nuclear, and hydroelectric projects, synchronously tuned to spin at a rate that generates electricity in the grid’s designed frequency parameters. The enormous weight of their spinning metal parts creates inertia, a distinct and unique value provided by these forms of energy.

The inertia in that rotational energy is a critically important element in keeping electric grids in advanced nations stable. A heavy spinning turbine, designed to rotate at up to 3,000 rpms operating at 1,500 rpms to synchronize with its grid frequency does not slow down or speed up rapidly. A Gw scale nuclear power plant will have hundreds, if not thousands, of tons of rotating metal mass in its generators. Gas-fired turbines have on the order of tens to hundreds of tons. Their rates of rotation (and correlated generation) and the inertia of their mass combine to resist rapid fluctuation. Because they are synchronized, minor fluctuations in frequency and voltage can be absorbed in the system, where a drop in rpms and frequency by one generator can usually be offset by others. In this manner, their rotational inertia absorbs some of the shock and help keep the grid operating within the system’s safe frequency and voltage tolerances.

Solar energy obviously has no inertia. Its direct current (DC) is fed into the grid’s alternating current (AC) by inverters. Wind turbines have inertia, but the energy generated by modern wind turbines’ rotation is converted to DC through inverters before being fed into the AC grid just like solar.

In this manner, hydrocarbon, nuclear and hydroelectric generating resources create and maintain or “form” the grid, while wind and solar “follow” it. The inverter-based resources actually need the frequency signal from the synchronized, spinning resources.

The importance of synchronized, inertia-based electricity generation resources cannot be overstated for maintaining stability on the electricity grids of advanced industrial nations. Fractions of a single Hz of disruptions in grid frequency can have enormous effects. Consider the effects of the two drops (combined barely ~2/10ths of a single Hz) and the cascading consequences to the Spanish grid fractions of a second after 12:33 p.m. local time on April 28th:

Thin veneer of civilization, microseconds away from the Hertz locker | Luis Badesa

The nations of Europe and America, Canada, the UK, and Australia have rushed to install the maximum possible wind and solar generation capacity. Charlaticians™ who do not understand the stability/reliability consequences of forcing a high percentage of wind and solar onto a grid built around synchronized, spinning, inertia-bearing generation sell this to their electorates as a solution to “climate change.”

The risk of grid disruptions (and worse) associated with high penetration of wind and solar electricity generation on modern grids is well known, not a new problem, and thoroughly described in scientific literature. Many studies, industry reports, and analyses have shown that instability and risk rise rapidly when wind and solar generation exceed 40-50% of the electricity on modern grids.

The graph below shows the installed capacity of all electricity generation resources on the Spanish grid as of January 1, 2024. The Spanish electric grid already had more inverter-based generation capacity (~52%) than spinning, synchronous generation capacity (48%) 16 months ago. Note that Spain is closing the last of its coal-fired generation plants and by legislation plans to begin the process of decommissioning the nation’s seven working nuclear reactors in 2027.

No one knows for certain what the limits are for wind and solar penetration on modern electric grids given current technology. But the headlong, politically driven, taxpayer subsidized rush to denominate the “success” of the “energy transition” in the amount of installed capacity means some nations are going to find out, one way or another, absent rapid course correction.

The blackout in Spain could be the first test of that limit at any significant scale. Portugal relies heavily on the Spanish grid, and we doubt its citizens signed up to be guinea pigs in a test of political platitudes against physics.

The graph below shows Spain’s electricity production by source just before the blackout occurred. Wind and solar combined were producing ~78% of generation on the grid, with spinning synchronized thermal, nuclear, and hydroelectric sources providing ~22%.

Just before the blackout, only two of Spain’s seven nuclear reactors were running at full power, with two others running around 70% in flexible operation because of the amount of wind and solar on the grid. The four reactors were generating at about half of the Spanish nuclear fleet’s 7.1 Gw capacity. Another plant was taking advantage of mild weather/demand in the shoulder months to refuel. What about the remaining two?

Cofrentes and Almaraz unit 1 were not operating. Why? Due to several successive days of incredibly low prices in Spain’s day-ahead electricity market. How low? €0/Megawatt hour (or less). In Spain’s managed electricity market (pretending to be a free market), electricity prices can actually go negative. A Gigawatt scale nuclear power plant is not going to operate for zero revenue or pay the grid operator to let it put power on the grid. This is the reality created by the political subsidization and forced adoption of “renewables” (how does one say “ruinables” in Spanish?) on modern grids.

Legacy media made little attempt to question whether the forms of electricity generation preferred by their regressive progressive keepers could have caused the grid failures in Spain and Portugal. Circling the wagons around the energy transition narrative seemed more the priority than fact finding.

AP published reports that mostly focused on the impacts to people’s lives. USA Today ran a piece that referenced the “rare atmospheric event” known as “induced atmospheric vibration,” as did Euronews, a theory that was (like cyberattack) soundly rejected given the facts.

The Guardian referenced the same theory. It posed the question “did renewable energy play a part?” but with the help of an “expert,” it quickly dismissed the question:

“However, this does not appear to be the case. Daniel Muir, a senior European power analyst at S&P Global, said: “The nature and scale of the outage makes it unlikely that the volume of renewables was the cause, with the Spanish network more often than not subject to very high volumes of such production.”

Reuters’ piece two days after the fiasco was typical, with a title that made no attempt to obscure their bias: Don’t Blame Renewables for Spain’s Power Outage (it was not wind and solar, it was their management!):

While it may be tempting to blame the unprecedented power outage that hit the Iberian Peninsula this week on the rapid growth of wind and solar power in Spain, reliance on renewables is not to blame. Rather, the issue appears to be the management of renewables in the modern grid.

The closest Reuters would come to touching the flame was to note that "One possible contributor is the lack of so-called 'grid inertia' as a result of the relatively small share of nuclear and fossil fuel generation in Spain's power mix.” It then identified the obvious solution as “a short-term” one:

“An obvious short-term solution to avoid a repeat of the blackout would be to maintain a higher baseload of rotating power generation.”

“A baseload of rotating power generation” is not the “obvious short-term solution.” It is the only solution without reductions in per capita energy consumption and living standards in the advanced world and constraining the ability of 7 billion people from achieving those living standards. Physics and economics dictate this realty.

Eight days after the blackout, Reuters headline declared “EU power grid needs trillion-dollar upgrade to avert Spain-style blackouts.” No amount of money spent only on the grid itself without addressing the lack of inertia-based generation (or massive amounts of pumped hydro and/or battery storage – at enormous cost - in its stead) will avert similar outcomes in European countries.

Credit Bloomberg (pro- “renewable”) energy writer Javier Blas for bucking the legacy media trend. Within hours of the blackout, he noted on X that (emphasis ours):

“Spain was running its grid with very little dispatchable spinning generation, and therefore no (sic) much inertia. Solar PV/thermal + wind: ~78% Nuclear: 11.5% Co-generation: 5% Gas-fired: ~3% (less than 1GW).”

By the next morning, he was less circumspect about the role “renewables” played in the Iberian Peninsula grid collapse, calling the event “The first blackout of the green electricity era.”

Blas-phemy! | Javier Blas/X

But perusing legacy media coverage since the Iberian Peninsula blackouts, a curious person would have difficulty finding details about the importance of grid inertia, the challenges integrating inverter-based grid following resources on a synchronous grid extremely sensitive to frequency and voltage perturbations, and other important facts. Traditional journalism’s sheer energy blindness and lack of expertise as well as the progressive ideology that needs to protect the “energy transition” narrative were both evident.

The good news is that anyone looking to delve more deeply into whether high penetration of wind and solar energy on the Spanish grid could have caused or contributed to the blackouts had to look no further than Substack to find content creators who were happy to provide it. And what a job those creators did.

Substack content creators provided detailed analysis of the situation with depth and resolution in a digestible manner. What they did to the legacy media fence attempting to protect the “energy transition” narrative can best be described visually:

That’s what I think of your fence… | Shutterstock

In fact, 16 months before the Iberian Peninsula blackouts, Substack energy analyst/guru Doomberg (like Substack’s Electric Grandma, Meredith Angwin, in her 2020 book Shorting the Grid) saw trouble of this nature directly ahead. Inverted Priorities closed with this prescient note:

In an ideal world, enhanced fault ride-through requirements would have been imposed on renewable energy projects before they were allowed to reach critical mass on our grids, but the mad dash for public cash appears to have resulted in systemic corner-cutting. Redundancy investments do not come cheap, and we suspect the costs consumers will ultimately have to bear to abate this foreseeable risk will be substantial.

But then again, imagine the alternative.

When Spain found out the alternative on April 28-29, the following Substack content creators filled the void left by a captured legacy media. Whether it was granular detail about grid inertia and its essential attributes, basic primers on the electrical grid and physics, how day-ahead market pricing at €O/megawatt hour contributed to a paucity of synchronous generation from the nation’s nuclear plants, or calculating the cost per megawatt hour of the lost load due to the blackout, Substack publishers were on the case like gravy on grandpa.

We encourage readers to dig into these posts for more granular information about the Iberian Peninsula blackout. (Please consider subscribing to these and other energy-related Substack publications.)

· Robert Bryce (two posts, one the day of the event, a second on May 2)

· Roger Pielke, Jr. – The Honest Broker: The Iberian Blackout

· Irina Slav: Blackout

· Isaac Orr and Mitch Rolling - Energy Bad Boys: El Blackout

· Dr. Chris Keefer – Decouple: The Iberian Blackout

· Energy IQ: On Lighting Candles and Gaslighting

· Brawlstreet Journal: The Grid Needs Inertia, Not Spin

· Michael Shellenberger – Public: The Spanish Government Is Lying About The Blackouts

· The Breakthrough Journal: It’s Okay to Notice When Solar and Wind Fail

· Nate Hagens – The Great Simplification: Pedro Prieto — Fragile Electric Grids: Did Renewables Cause the Blackout in Spain?

· Meredith Angwin - The Electric Grandma: The Switches in Spain

We close by pointing out the lessons that should be learned from the Iberian Peninsula blackouts. First, the blackout in Spain and Portugal should be a clear warning that there are limits to forcing a high percentage of inverter-based, intermittent energy sources like wind and solar on advanced nations’ electricity grids, beyond which substantial system-wide risks compound.

That recognition may have led to a development emerging from the situation in Spain unthinkable only a month ago. Last week, the nuclear lobby in Spain urged review of the planned 2027 plant decommissioning and it appears the Socialist-led minority government is now willing to listen.

Second, Substack has become a formidable antidote to the low-resolution, legacy media sunscreen attempting to maintain the narrative: that the “renewable energy transition” is easy, cheaper, and requires no sacrifice for the 1 billion privileged to live in energy surplus and, more importantly, can lift the other 7 billion to their living standards. Maintaining that narrative may be possible before physics and economics eventually reconcile it, but it will have to do so against the growing drum of energy reality voices on Substack pushing out a countervailing message to increasing numbers of interested and affected people worldwide.

The growing depth and quality of content creation in the energy space on Substack is clear. That content is scattered across existing categories like “Climate and Environment” and “Finance.” The geopolitical, social, and economic importance of energy humanism in the present era suggest to us that it is time “Energy” had its own category on this platform.

We await the results of the investigations by the governments of Spain and Portugal, their grid operators, and the European Union, noting the first and last of those sponsored and compelled the “energy transition.” We hope they render findings more believable than Penn State University’s investigation into allegations of research impropriety by climate scientist Michael Mann. But we expect the blame to be pinned on something akin to a faulty €12 relay (made in China, for good measure) to protect Spain’s goal of 81% “renewable” electricity by 2030.

The aim of installing the maximum amount of wind and solar generation capacity to replace hydrocarbon and nuclear-based electricity generation was always going to have consequences that were being shoved under the rug. Consider us in the camp with those who believe the blame in Spain falls mainly on the aim.

Editor’s Note: Meredith Angwin’s excellent post on the Iberian Peninsula blackouts published hours after we released this has been added to the list of Substack content creators who contributed great work on the topic.

“Like” this post if you think Substack should add Energy as a discreet category on the platform.

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